COVID 19 UPDATE: What have we learned?

I was recently interviewed by a health blogger, Dmitri Konash, with specific questions about COVID 19. The podcast link is below.

Here are the questions and answer notes from the podcast.

QUESTION #1: It has been almost 4 months since Covid19 was declared a global pandemic. What are the main things which we have learned about the virus over these 4 months?

Very contagious, spread by droplet AND aerosol as well as fomites (CLOTHING, surfaces, pillows, blankets, etc). Aerosols are tiny particles suspended in the air for hours following a sneeze or cough or possibly yelling or singing. Droplets are larger particles that fall to the ground or onto surfaces. Depending on the surface the virus can remain infectious for up to 72 hours following droplet spread.

Individuals without symptoms can transmit disease (unlike most viruses) so this in combination with degree of contagion is very dangerous.

The average time from exposure to develop symptoms is 5 DAYS, 97.5% of people who develop symptoms do so within 11.5 days.

Some individuals never develop symptoms but can transmit disease for 2 or more weeks.

Infected individuals can carry the virus for up to 36 days (but we do not know how long an individual can transmit the disease) Average time to clear the virus is 14 days. (nasal PCR test)

Cough and sneeze can project 26 feet through the air, that is why masks can decrease risk but decreasing projection distance and viral load.

Masks Work, they decrease risk of disease transmission and probably decrease viral load, so if transmitted the recipient is probably less likely to develop severe complications (not proven but likely true).

Most infections are transmitted in closed spaces where many people are congregated and socializing such as parties, social gatherings, meetings, bars and restaurants.

Outdoor activity is safer.

The longer the contact between individuals the greater the risk.

The closer the contact the greater the risk.

Anyone can die from the virus but risk increases with age, diabetes, pre-diabetes, obesity, heart and lung disease, immune-compromise.

Any organ can be affected, lungs, brain, heart, kidneys, blood vessels.

Hyper-coaguable state can cause blood clots in the legs, lungs, heart and brain, any organ.

After recovering from infection individuals can suffer permanent damage to these organs.

We do not know how many people who recover will be immune or how long immunity could last. Already one case of re-infection has been reported.

The infection fatality rate (IFR) for COVID-19 IS 25 times greater than the H1N1 FLU pandemic.

A recent analysis comparing the 2009 H1N1 influenza A pandemic to COVID 19 suggested this:

 Case Fatality RateInfection Fatality Rate
2009 H1N1 Virus (flu)0.1% to 0.2%0.02%
COVID-19 New York8%0.50%
CFR is # deaths/#cases identified by nasal PCR, IFR is # deaths/actual # cases in a given population, estimated by antibody testing of a large population

For a discussion on the difference between CFR (case fatality rate) and IFR (infection fatality rate) see my previous post.

https://practical-evolutionary-health.com/2020/04/25/stanford-study-on-santa-clara-county-very-questionable-conclusions/

QUESTION #2: We reached the new high of newly diagnosed cases on June 28th. It looks like the virus is not subsiding. What is the status re drug and vaccine development?

Vaccine will likely take at least a year to develop, test, then manufacture and distribute.

Initially most vulnerable will probably take priority for vaccination. Massive vaccination will take longer.

THERE HAS NEVER BEEN A SUCCESSFUL CORONA VIRUS Vaccine. There are many corona viruses. They mutate quickly and a vaccine that works initially may become ineffective if/when new strains emerge.

Decadron (dexamethasone) IV decreases mortality rates in very sick patients.

Remdesivir shortens illness and might decrease mortality rate (the reduction compared to placebo fell short of statistical significance, p=0.059, cut-off for statistical significance is usually P=0.050)

Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have failed to show any benefit. A prevention trial remains underway.

There is no “cure”, just risk reduction.

QUESTION #3: What are the latest recommendations on prevention?

Social distance

Mask

Frequent hand washing

Get adequate sleep, sleep deprivation impairs immunity

Avoid alcohol which suppresses the immune system.

Get sunshine (vitamin D)

Develop a social “bubble”, limit contacts to close, reliable (responsible behavior) individuals

Exercise out of doors.

If overweight or obese, LOSE WEIGHT (Low Carb High Fat diet is MOST EFFECTIVE in combination with time restricted eating)

IF diabetes or pre-diabetes, carbohydrate restriction can rapidly achieve better blood sugar control, which is linked to risk reduction. Regular exercise can also improve insulin sensitivity, as can improved sleep habits.

QUESTION #4: There was some information recently about potential long-term impact on vital body organs for patients who had only mild symptoms. What actions do people who were tested positive for COVID19 should take to minimize long term impact to their health?

Follow general principles of healthy living (visit my website)

Sleep

Nutrition-anti-inflammatory diet

Exercise

Sunshine

Stress reduction

Social-community support

Minimize environmental toxin exposure (organic foods, safe personal and home-care products, visit EWG.org)

QUESTION #5: What actions should be taken by people who have been tested negative for COVID19 ? 

Same answer as question #4 above, lifestyle changes to enhance immune function and reduce systemic inflammation.

On July 10, a review article on COVID 19 was published in JAMA.

Pathophysiology, Transmission, Diagnosis, and Treatment
of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19
)

Here is the link.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768391

The case-fatality rate for COVID-19 varies markedly by age, ranging from 0.3 deaths per 1000 cases among patients aged 5 to 17 years to 304.9 deaths per 1000 cases among patients aged 85 years or older in the US. Among patients hospitalized in the intensive care unit, the case fatality is up to 40%

And here is a link to the JAMA patient information page for COVID 19.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2768390

In the context of the COVID 19 pandemic I will close with the usual summary.

  1. Avoid alcohol consumption (alcohol wreaks havoc with your immunity)
  2. Get plenty of sleep (without adequate sleep your immune system does not work well )
  3. Follow good sleep habits
  4. Exercise, especially out of doors in a green space, supports the immune system
  5. Get some sunshine and make sure you have adequate Vitamin D levels.
  6. Eat an anti-inflammatory diet rich in micronutrients.
  7. Practice stress reduction like meditation and yoga which improves the immune system
  8. Eliminate sugar-added foods and beverages from your diet. These increase inflammation, cause metabolic dysfunction, and suppress immunity.
  9. Eliminate refined-inflammatory “vegetable oils” from your diet, instead eat healthy fat.
  10. Clean up your home environment and minimize your family’s exposure to environmental toxins by following recommendations at EWG.org with regards to household products, personal care products, and organic foods. (https://www.ewg.org/)

THIS WEBSITE PROVIDES INFORMATION FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. CONSULT YOUR HEALTH CARE PROVIDER FOR MEDICAL ADVICE.

Eat clean, drink filtered water, love, laugh, exercise outdoors in a greenspace, get some morning sunlight, block the blue light before bed, engage in meaningful work, find a sense of purpose, spend time with those you love, AND sleep well tonight.

Doctor Bob

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